Zölle und Handelskriege

Die US-Regierung hat zusätzliche Zölle in Höhe von 25 % auf US-Automobilimporte angekündigt. Kurzfristig (~1 Jahr) wären vor allem Mexiko (-1,81 % reales BIP) und Kanada (-0,6 %) betroffen. Deutschland käme mit -0,18 % vergleichsweise glimpflich davon. Die Exportverluste halten sich insgesamt in Grenzen, da Autos häufig in der Nähe des Absatzmarkts produziert werden. In den USA steigen die Verbraucherpreise voraussichtlich um rund ein Prozent. Unsere Analyse geht zunächst von keiner Gegenreaktion aus.

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The Trump administration will impose 25 percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. The economic effects primarily harm the US itself, with higher inflation and reduced exports. Canada and Mexico also face substantial economic costs, while the EU experiences virtually no direct impact due to its limited exposure. 

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The new US administration has announced the intention to put 25% tariffs on all EU goods. The economic effects are significant and vary: while the EU would experience a notable economic slowdown, the US would also face significant costs, especially if the EU retaliates. Rising prices in the US and disruptions to EU exports, particularly in manufacturing-heavy sectors like automotive, add further pressure. 

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With the US threatening tariffs against EU member states, the question of how to respond becomes more urgent. Three counterfactual scenarios help understanding the mechanisms at play: 

1. Baseline: U.S. imposes +25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, 10% on all others. 
2. Retaliation by the EU and China with 10% tariffs on U.S. imports.
3. Further U.S. escalation with an additional 25% tariff on EU car imports. 

In response to the denying two US military carrying return migrants landing at Colombian airports, US President Trump imposed 25% tariffs against all imports from Colombia (in addition to other measures against Colombian officials). Everything was called off within hours, the short-run (1 year) impact would have been substantial. 

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After a thorough review of China’s subsidy practices, the European Commission has decided to impose countervailing duties averaging 21 percent on Chinese electric vehicles, in addition to the existing 10 percent tariff. Specific tariff rates for individual manufacturers highlight the targeted nature of this review, aimed at addressing distortive subsidies. 

The introduction of these duties will have significant effects. Recent calculations using the Kiel Institute KITE model indicate that the EU’s total tariffs, amounting to approximately 31 percent on Chinese electric vehicles, could lead to a reduction in imports of electric vehicles from China by around 25 percent. This corresponds to a value of about 4 billion US dollars.