Prof. Dr. Christoph Trebesch

The research project studies the effects that China’s growing economic engagement has on African economies, and how China’s economic presence is perceived by African citizens. To this effect, the key dimensions of trade, investment, aid, debt, and migration flows from China to Africa (and vice versa) are analyzed.

The Cluster for Economic Research on Africa focuses on enterprises and entrepreneurial potential in African markets, trade and investment policy, and issues of macroeconomic development, stability, and public finance. This research will strengthen evidence-based policy advice for German and European Africa policy and also engage and address African partners.

Populism is one of the main challenges of our time. However, the phenomenon has not been sufficiently researched so far, especially in economics. In particular, there is a lack of sustainable prevention strategies. This project quantifies the electoral results and government participation of populists since 1870.

A long-awaited Ukraine supplemental appropriations bill for Ukraine was finally signed into law on April 24, after months of deliberation. At USD 31.5 billion, the funds destined for Ukraine are only about half of the reported USD 61 billion and are significantly lower than the USD 39.5 billion granted in December 2022. The other half is mostly Department of Defense funding for procurement, operations, and maintenance and is not directly attributable as aid for Ukraine. There is still a large discrepancy between air defense equipment provided to Ukraine and the stocks held by the donor states. This is shown in the latest update of the Ukraine Support Tracker, which tracks aid to Ukraine through April 30, 2024.

New European aid to Ukraine has not shown an uptick in recent months, despite the fact that US aid has come to a complete halt. In January and February 2024, European countries allocated a total of about EUR 6 billion in aid to Ukraine, almost all of it for the military. This is shown in the latest update of the Ukraine Support Tracker, which tracks aid commitments through February 29, 2024. The European aid in recent months is nowhere near enough to fill the gap left by the lack of US assistance, particularly in the area of ammunition and artillery shells. The new US aid package which passed congress last weekend is therefore crucial, but not yet included in the figures.

The Team of the Ukraine Support Tracker introduces a new measure to track foreign government aid to Ukraine – government “allocations”. The data show that total European aid has long overtaken U.S. aid - not only in terms of commitments, but also in terms of specific aid allocations sent to Ukraine. In addition, the approval of the EU's Ukraine Support Facility guarantees further financial assistance. However, the gap between EU commitments and allocations remains very large (€144 billion committed vs. €77 billion allocated). To fully replace U.S. military assistance in 2024, Europe would have to double its current level and pace of arms assistance. These are results from the latest Ukraine Support Tracker update, which now covers aid through January 15, 2024.

After more than 800 days of Russian aggression, it is clear that the war of attrition is a key element of the conflict. Important perspectives can therefore come from analyzing Russia’s economic capacity to sustain aggression against Ukraine, juxtaposed with Ukraine’s economic resilience to withstand and resist. Economic realities and proposed strategies and outlooks need to be discussed as Europe continues to debate how to support Ukraine.

How has foreign aid to Ukraine evolved in recent months? Could Europe fill the gap, in case US Congress fails to pass another Ukraine support bill? And how does promised aid compare to actually allocated aid to be sent to Ukraine?

The Kiel Institute is hosting a MSC Conversation on the "guns versus butter" question at the Munich Security Conference 2024.