Fed faces difficult times

“The Federal Reserve faces a challenging monetary policy decision. After cutting interest rates several times last year, it is highly likely that it will adopt a wait-and-see approach without changing rates on March 19, 2025. This decision is also supported by the latest economic data: the inflation rate has recently stabilized but remains above the inflation target of 2 percent. At the same time, the labor market has remained stable so far, so concerns about a stagflationary development with rising inflation and stagnating economy have diminished somewhat.

Nevertheless, considerable uncertainty remains due to the US government's economic policy and geopolitical risks. In particular, the announced new import tariffs could drive up prices, which would limit the Fed's monetary policy flexibility with regard to further interest rate cuts. At the same time, the economy and the labor market could deteriorate significantly in the coming months due to high economic uncertainty, layoffs in public institutions, and the negative effects of trade tariffs. Interest rate cuts could then be necessary to support the economy, which could potentially conflict with a renewed rise in inflation.

However, the biggest challenge for the Fed remains the political environment. President Trump has once again put pressure on the central bank and called for interest rate cuts. Such a clear attempt by a political leader to influence the Fed's monetary policy is unprecedented since the 1970s. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizes the need to wait as long as economic uncertainty remains elevated. To preserve its independence as much as possible, the Fed must base its decision on economic fundamentals and communicate this clearly.”