Ukraine support after 3 years of war: Aid flows remain low but steady - Shift towards weapons procurement

February 24, 2025, marks the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Looking back, it becomes clear that Western donor countries have provided a continuous flow of aid to Ukraine, almost following a linear trend. In total, approximately EUR 267 billion in aid has been allocated to Ukraine over the past three years, amounting to more than EUR 80 billion per year. Of the total around EUR 130 billion (49 percent) were allocated in military assistance, EUR 118 billion (44 percent) in financial support, and EUR 19 billion (7 percent) in humanitarian aid.

The sum of aid is comparatively low, however, when measured as a share of donor GDP. Germany, the UK, and the US, for example, have mobilized less than 0.2 percent of their GDP per year to support Ukraine, while other rich donor countries like France, Italy, or Spain only allocated about 0.1 percent of their annual GDP. Even small domestic policy priorities are many times more expensive than what is being done for Ukraine. For example, Germany’s tax subsidies for diesel fuel (‘diesel privilege’) cost taxpayers three times more per year than Germany’s military aid for Ukraine. “When looking at the government budgets in most European donor countries, Ukraine aid over the last 3 years looks more like a minor political ‘pet project’ rather than a major fiscal effort,” says Christoph Trebesch, head of the Ukraine Support Tracker at the Kiel Institute.

Europe as a whole has clearly overtaken the US in terms of Ukraine aid. In total, Europe has allocated EUR 70 billion in financial and humanitarian aid as well as EUR 62 billion in military aid. This compares to EUR 64 billion in military aid from the US as well as EUR 50 billion in financial and humanitarian allocations.

The declining role of US aid started in mid-2023 also because aid flow significantly decreased for nine months when the US Congress blocked any new aid bill. In recent months US aid has picked up again, but “with the return of President Trump to office, US military aid is likely to stall again. As a result, European governments will be asked to step up their efforts and fill the large gap left by the US,” says Christoph Trebesch.

The newly collected data also show that the Russia-Ukraine war is increasingly dictated by weapons production. At the beginning of the war, military aid largely came from the existing arsenals of donor countries, but the prolonged Russian aggression now requires an increasing share to be sourced directly from industry.

In the first months of the war, more than 90 percent of military aid was mobilized from national arsenals. In 2023 and 2024, however, most of the military aid—more than 60 percent—was ordered from industry and newly produced. This shift is particularly evident in Germany, where nearly three-quarters of military equipment for Ukraine is ordered directly from industry. The UK relies more on existing stockpiles, with just 22 percent of its military aid coming from new orders. The US orders 48 percent of its military aid from industry.

Three years into the war, European donors have slowly improved their coordination and introduced new mechanisms for joint industrial weapons procurement for Ukraine. The largest multilateral procurement initiative is the International Fund for Ukraine (IFU), a UK-led funding mechanism that pools contributions from multiple countries to purchase military equipment for Ukraine, with total allocations amounting to EUR 1.6 billion. Other recent efforts include the Czech Ammunition Initiative and NATO Comprehensive Assistance Package for Ukraine.

“Russia's war against Ukraine has become a war of procurement and weapons production,” says Christoph Trebesch. “It is thus crucial to build up industrial capacity for defense production—especially in Europe. The best way to do so is by pan-European cooperation.”

For more in-depth analysis on these trends and further insights into the evolution of Ukraine support over the past three years, please visit our Three-Year Anniversary Report: Ukraine Support After Three Years of War: Aid remains low but steady and there is a shift toward weapons procuremen.