Economic Outlook

Sales prices for apartments, single- and multi-family homes fell again in 2024 compared to the previous year. This was due to the continued fall in prices in the first quarter. Although a turnaround then set in, it was not strong enough to produce a positive outcome for the year. This is the result of a current evaluation of the German Real Estate Index (GREIX), a joint project of the local expert committees (Gutachterausschüsse), ECONtribute, and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy based on notarized sales prices.

US tariff and trade policies are dampening the German economy, but the planned substantial deficit leeway through a special fund and credit-financed defense spending would give it a significant boost next year. This is according to the current spring forecast from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. According to the forecast, the outlook for 2025 remains unchanged at stagnation (0.0 percent). For the coming year, the Kiel Institute is significantly revising its expectations upwards by 0.6 percentage points compared to the winter forecast and now expects an increase of 1.5 percent. The downside is a rising public debt level to over 65 percent of GDP, and there is still no all-clear for inflation.

The price recovery for residential properties lost momentum at the end of 2024. Prices for apartments stagnated, while single-family homes and multi-family houses are slightly more expensive than in the previous quarter (Q3 2024). Market activity is picking up, as evidenced by an increasing number of transactions. These insights are based on the latest update of the German Real Estate Index (GREIX), a joint project of the local expert committees (Gutachterausschüsse für Grundstückswerte (GAAs)), ECONtribute, and the Kiel Institute. The transaction databases of the GAAs, which contain notarized sales prices, are evaluated according to the latest scientific standards. All data for currently 20 cities and regions including their neighborhoods are freely available at www.greix.de.