Tariffs and Trade Wars
KITE Scenario Analytics
The Kiel Institute’s “Tariffs and Trade Wars” platform offers in-depth analyses, simulations, and commentaries on the economic impacts of tariffs and trade conflicts. Utilizing the KITE model, the we evaluate scenarios such as the effects of U.S. tariffs on European goods, potential EU countermeasures, and the broader consequences of escalating trade tensions on global economies. To support informed discussions on trade policies, the platform provides access to the raw data used in these analyses, providing structured data of newly announced tariffs. The research is continually updated to reflect current developments, ensuring relevance and accuracy.
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The US administration has just announced an additional 25% tariff on US automotive imports. In the short term (~1 year), Mexico (-1.81% real GDP) and Canada (-0.6%) would be particularly affected. Germany would get off relatively lightly at -0.18%. Overall, export losses will be limited as cars are often produced close to the sales market. Consumer prices in the USA are expected to rise by around one percent. Our analysis assumes no counter-reaction for the time being.
Download data | Exports (.csv)Download data | Price Index (.csv) Download data | Real production (.csv)
The Trump administration will impose 25 percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. The economic effects primarily harm the US itself, with higher inflation and reduced exports. Canada and Mexico also face substantial economic costs, while the EU experiences virtually no direct impact due to its limited exposure.
Download data | Real GDP (.csv)Download data | Price Index (.csv)
The new US administration has announced the intention to put 25% tariffs on all EU goods. The economic effects are significant and vary: while the EU would experience a notable economic slowdown, the US would also face significant costs, especially if the EU retaliates. Rising prices in the US and disruptions to EU exports, particularly in manufacturing-heavy sectors like automotive, add further pressure.
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With the US threatening tariffs against EU member states, the question of how to respond becomes more urgent. Three counterfactual scenarios help understanding the mechanisms at play:
- Baseline: U.S. imposes +25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, 10% on all others.
- Retaliation by the EU and China with 10% tariffs on U.S. imports.
- Further U.S. escalation with an additional 25% tariff on EU car imports.
In response to the denying two US military carrying return migrants landing at Colombian airports, US President Trump imposed 25% tariffs against all imports from Colombia (in addition to other measures against Colombian officials). Everything was called off within hours, the short-run (1 year) impact would have been substantial.
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The Trump administration threatened an additional 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, which would significantly harm all three economies. Real US GDP would decline by 0.2%, while Mexico and Canada would face dramatic short-run contractions of -4.2% and -2.8%, respectively.
A threatened 100% tariff imposed by the US on BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and new entrants) would lead to severe economic losses for all countries involved.
In the run-up to the 2024 US election the future directions of US trade policy remained unclear. The later successful candidate Trump threatened wide-ranging tariffs — such as a 10% surcharge on all imports and a 60% tariff on those originating from Chinese — which could reduce global trade by 2.5% initially, with greater contractions if trade partners retaliate.
After a thorough review of China’s subsidy practices, the European Commission has decided to impose countervailing duties averaging 21 percent on Chinese electric vehicles, in addition to the existing 10 percent tariff. Specific tariff rates for individual manufacturers highlight the targeted nature of this review, aimed at addressing distortive subsidies.
The introduction of these duties will have significant effects. Recent calculations using the Kiel Institute KITE model indicate that the EU’s total tariffs, amounting to approximately 31 percent on Chinese electric vehicles, could lead to a reduction in imports of electric vehicles from China by around 25 percent. This corresponds to a value of about 4 billion US dollars.
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Tariff Data Download
Access the “tariff deltas,” representing changes in tariffs since January 2025, in CSV format. Detailed information on data structure and sources is available in the accompanying documentation. The files are named "Tariff Deltas [imposing country] - [target country].csv".
Tariff Deltas CAN USA
Tariff Deltas CHN USA
Tariff Deltas USA CAN
Tariff Deltas USA CHN
Tariff Deltas USA erga omnes (EO)
Tariff Deltas USA MEX
Tariff Deltas EU USA
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